Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

A “load-carrier” perspective approach for assessing tourism resource carrying capacity

To address the challenge of global tourism resources being overloaded or underutilization, there requires an adequate method for assessing the tourism resource carrying capacity (TRCC). However, the majority of previous evaluation perspectives on TRCC are limited by thresholds. This paper develops an innovative approach for assessing TRCC from the “load-carrier” perspective. TRCC is assessed by exploring the interaction between the carriers and loads of tourism resources. Chongqing city in China is employed as the case city to demonstrate the application of the established TRCC method. The conclusions are as follows: 1) This study elaborates the new connotation of TRCC from the perspective of “load-carrier”, and establishes the TRCC evaluation system based on the dynamic relationship between the carrier and load of tourism resources. 2) The proposed TRCC evaluation method is proved effective through an empirical study of Chongqing. 3) Chongqing's case unveils that the overload performance of TRCC can be dynamically monitored and predicted. By applying the TRCC evaluation methodology developed in this study, tourism managers and policymakers can identify whether it is the load or the carrier of tourism resources that affect the performance of TRCC, thereby taking targeted policy measures to eliminate potential risks of overload or underutilization.     

Fear appeals and coping appeals for health product promotion: Impulsive purchasing or psychological distancing?

The prevalence of online health communities (OHCs) motivates health product companies to manipulate persuasion-based marketing strategies, including fear appeals and coping appeals, to promote health products. However, whether such a practice is effective remains unclear. Respondents may either impulsively purchase the recommended health products or simply distance themselves psychologically from the information. Building on protection motivation theory (PMT), this study uncovers the mechanisms behind these two coping responses to persuasive messages, namely, the impulsive purchasing and psychological distancing of OHC users. Correspondingly, we evaluated 366 valid questionnaires, and the results reveal that (1) when encountering fear appeals, perceived health threat can evoke cyberchondria, leading to psychological distancing; and (2) when encountering coping appeals, perceived response efficacy leads to product affection, fostering impulsive purchasing. This study provides new insights into the effects of persuasive messages for health product promotion in social commerce. Marketers should design appropriate persuasive messages to foster impulsive purchasing by generating individuals’ product affection and avoiding cyberchondria.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

Pursuing your leader development: Lessons from 101 executives

To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.     

基于GIS和RS的蓄滞洪区和谐发展的技术路线

应用遥感与地理信息系统技术构建基于GIS模型的蓄滞洪区空间数据库,对蓄滞洪区内的基础地理数据进行存储、管理,并对空间数据进行可视化和空间分析等操作;运用RS技术对蓄滞洪区内的土地利用、生态环境变化等情况进行动态监测,建立蓄滞洪区发展指标体系;探求蓄滞洪区的和谐发展模式,为蓄滞洪区的可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Producing drama: a comparison of film tax incentives to alternative uses

Incentive packages are popular tools for economic development. However, development projects are often considered in isolation without an analysis of opportunity costs. In this study, we use an intuitive framework for comparing projects and weigh alternate projects against North Carolina’s film incentive programme. The results indicate that there are substantial differences in the economic impact of the projects we consider in this study. Our results suggest that policy decisions by governments and economic development officials should weigh a potential project against alternative uses in order to optimize the use of incentives.